Statistical Methods in Ancient Greece

I am continuing re-reading a translation of Thucydides book The Peloponnesian War about the 27 year war between Athens and Sparta back in the fifth century B.C.

It is not all about war. Here is a story about Statistical Methods from about 425 B.C. No fancy formulas are involved, just common sense.

It was near the town of Plataea that the Persian Invaders many years before had finally been defeated once and for all by a combined army of Athenians, Spartans, Plataeans, and others, driving them from the Greek mainland (Battle of Plataea). This small but famous town was an ally of the Athenians and hence a potential target by the Spartans. Anticipating this, the Plataeans transferred their families and most of their people to Athens for safety, leaving behind a small guard. The Spartans were goaded on by their allies the Thebans to capture Plataea for them. Since the remaining Plataeans refused to surrender, the town was surrounded by a wall built by the besiegers. As their food ran down, the defenders plotted escape. The plan was to sneak out in the middle of the night, using ladders to get over the surrounding wall.

But how long to make the ladders to reach to the top of the surrounding Spartan wall? Thucydides described how they measured the height of the wall:

The Plataeans calculated the height of the wall from the number of layers of bricks. A great many of the Plataeans gathered on their own wall and each man counted the layers of bricks on the wall across the way. Although some would make mistakes, the count would be oftener right than wrong. They did it again and again. Thus, they were able to determine the length of the ladders by using the thickness of bricks.

I am a professional Statistician. These people 2400 years ago showed a better understanding of Statistical Methods and Concepts than many people today, who have to make important decisions. And this was an important decision. Most of the Plataeans got away safely, except for some who were afraid to try. Later those who stayed behind surrendered. The Spartans executed the prisoners.